Prediction Markets · 101
A straight answer
on every prediction
market question.
An independent, updated reference for Polymarket, Kalshi, and the rest of the category. No hype, no filler — written for people who actually want to understand how these platforms work and whether they can legally use them.
Quick answers
Is Polymarket legal in the US?
Polymarket blocks US IPs after a 2022 CFTC settlement. US users typically access it with a VPN and crypto deposits — no KYC at signup. Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated alternative if you prefer.
Read moreWhat's the difference between Polymarket and Kalshi?
Polymarket is global, crypto-native, unregulated. Kalshi is US-only, USD-native, CFTC-regulated.
Read moreHow do I sign up?
Polymarket takes about 10 minutes with an email and some USDC. Kalshi (US-only) takes about 10 minutes with ID and a bank account.
Read moreAre prediction markets safe?
Kalshi holds funds in segregated FDIC-insured accounts. Polymarket uses audited smart contracts and self-custody.
Read morePopular guides
All guides →- 01
Can US citizens use Polymarket? The real answer
US citizens cannot legally use Polymarket from the US. Citizenship doesn't matter — it's the IP address and KYC location that Polymarket blocks. Here's the full picture, plus what expat US citizens can do.
- 02
How does Kalshi work? The complete walkthrough
Inside Kalshi: the CFTC-regulated DCM architecture, contract structure, resolution process, fees, and how a trade flows from click to settlement.
- 03
How does Polymarket work? A technical walkthrough
The full stack behind Polymarket: the order book, the smart contracts, the oracle, USDC settlement, and what happens from your click to final payout.
- 04
How to connect MetaMask to Polymarket: self-custody trading guide
Connect MetaMask to Polymarket in under 5 minutes. Adds Polygon network, funds with MATIC and USDC, and signs trades with full self-custody. Recommended for serious traders.
- 05
How to deposit on Polymarket: every funding path explained
Four ways to fund Polymarket with USDC: in-app MoonPay onramp, Coinbase withdrawal, cross-chain bridge from Ethereum, or direct wallet transfer. Here's the full mechanics, fees, and timing of each.
- 06
How to make money on Polymarket: realistic expectations and real tactics
Most retail bettors lose money on prediction markets. The ones who profit have information edge, disciplined sizing, and patience. Here are the tactics that actually work — and the delusions to avoid.
- 07
How to sign up for Kalshi: the complete US signup guide
Sign up for Kalshi in 10 minutes. Full walkthrough: account creation, KYC, bank linking, first deposit, first trade. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated and legal in all 50 US states.
- 08
How to sign up for Polymarket: the complete step-by-step guide
Create a Polymarket account in under 10 minutes. Full walkthrough covering email signup, wallet setup, USDC funding, and your first trade.
By country
Regulatory status for every country on earth. Check yours before you sign up.
By US state
Kalshi operates in all 50 states under federal CFTC authority. Here's the local law for each.
Compare platforms
Polymarket vs Kalshi, vs PredictIt. Fees, custody, resolution, legality — side by side.
Glossary
Oracle, CLOB, USDC, conditional token — every term defined in plain English.