Probability (implied)
If YES is at $0.65, the market thinks the event has a 65% probability.
Prediction Markets 101 editorial team Updated April 16, 2026 1 min read
Definition
The implied probability of a prediction market is simply the current price of the YES contract, expressed as a percentage.
Plain-English explanation
Prediction market prices are uniquely clean probability estimates — no need to decode American or decimal odds, no vig to strip out. A $0.42 YES contract means the market thinks 42% chance of YES.