Crypto prediction markets: BTC, ETH, and protocol outcomes
How Polymarket structures crypto price and event markets, and what Kalshi offers. Plus how to think about hedging crypto positions via prediction markets.
The crypto category
Crypto markets on Polymarket cover BTC and ETH price milestones ("Will BTC hit $150k by end of year?"), ETF approvals, exchange hacks, stablecoin depegs, and protocol upgrades. Kalshi has focused on spot price milestones and regulatory outcomes.
Why crypto-native prediction markets matter
Polymarket is itself crypto-native — USDC on Polygon. This means crypto price markets can be hedged directly with minimal friction. If you hold BTC and want to hedge downside, a well-placed position on "BTC stays above $X" can be cheaper than options.
Risks
Crypto markets often have cascading correlations. A BTC crash can move ETF flow markets, regulatory markets, and exchange-health markets simultaneously.