Science prediction markets: Nobel prizes, space launches, and AI milestones
Long-tail but growing. Science markets on Polymarket include Nobel Prize winners, space launch outcomes, and AI benchmark achievements.
The science category
Nobel Prizes (each year), major space launches (SpaceX milestones), drug approvals (FDA decisions), and AI benchmark achievements ("Will GPT-X score above Y on MMLU?") make up the bulk of science markets.
Low liquidity, high edge potential
Science markets are niche. The same handful of domain experts trade them repeatedly, which means casual traders face sharp counterparts. But liquidity is thin enough that a small trade can move prices — so your edge has to outweigh execution cost.
Most interesting for outcome distributions
Science markets are particularly interesting as a probability-reading tool even if you don't trade. "What's the market-implied probability that SpaceX lands Starship on Mars by 2030?" is a valuable answer regardless of whether you take a position.