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Prediction Markets101

Sports prediction markets: how they work and where to trade them

Sports contracts on Polymarket and Kalshi — what's available, how they compare to traditional sportsbooks, and how resolution works.

Prediction Markets 101 editorial team Updated April 17, 2026

Polymarket sports markets

Polymarket covers all major US pro leagues (NFL, NBA, MLB, NHL), major soccer (Premier League, Champions League, World Cup), Formula 1, UFC, and esports. Markets include championship winners, MVPs, regular-season leaders, and game-by-game outcomes during major events.

Kalshi sports markets

Kalshi entered sports in late 2024 following its political-markets ruling. Initial offerings focused on championship outcomes, season win totals, and individual-player awards.

How sports markets differ from sportsbooks

  • **Exchange, not book.** On Polymarket and Kalshi you trade against other users. On FanDuel/DraftKings you trade against the house.
  • **Lower cost.** Polymarket's per-trade fee (introduced late 2025; historically 0%) and Kalshi's low trading fee are both well below traditional sportsbook juice (typically ~4.5%).
  • **Liquidity is event-driven.** Major events get deep books. Obscure markets can be thin.

    • Arbitrage opportunities

    Sophisticated traders arbitrage Polymarket vs Kalshi vs traditional sportsbooks. Spreads can reach several percentage points on well-known events, though fees and latency erode edge.